Kathmandu, 8 March: When combining the direct and proportional representation seats, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has approached close to a two-thirds majority. The party has already won 107 seats in the direct elections and is leading in 23 constituencies. When both categories are combined, there is a strong possibility that it will secure a total of 125 parliamentary seats. There are nine constituencies where the party is not currently leading, and results in a few of those areas could potentially shift. Nevertheless, RASWAPA has guaranteed at least 125 seats in the direct category.
In the proportional representation system, approximately 2.5 million votes have been counted nationwide. According to the latest data, RASWAPA has received about 1.265 million votes, which constitutes nearly 51 percent of the total counted so far. The Nepali Congress has garnered around 427,000 votes, approximately 17 percent, while the CPN-UML has secured about 340,000 votes, roughly 13.5 percent. Apart from these major parties, the CPN-Maoist Center and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party have crossed the 3 percent threshold required to secure seats. The Shram Sanskriti Party currently stands at 2 percent and has not yet managed to cross the threshold. Other parties hold even smaller vote shares. If the current ratio holds, RASWAPA is projected to win more than half of the proportional seats.
Based on the calculation method adopted by the Election Commission for the proportional system, RASWAPA is likely to secure around 61 seats. If the current proportions are maintained, the Nepali Congress would get approximately 21 seats and the CPN-UML around 16 seats. The CPN-Maoist Center might obtain about 8 seats, while the Rastriya Prajatantra Party could secure around 4 seats. However, adjustments will be made for parties failing to cross the threshold, and their votes will be redistributed, which could slightly alter the final seat allocation.
In the 275-member House of Representatives, a two-thirds majority requires 184 seats. Based on the current trends, RASWAPA appears poised to win 125 seats in the direct category and approximately 61 seats through proportional representation, totaling around 186 seats. If the proportional vote share remains consistent, the party could come remarkably close to, or even achieve, a two-thirds majority in the lower house.
A two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives holds immense constitutional and political significance. It is required for crucial decisions such as initiating impeachment motions against constitutional officeholders and their subsequent proceedings. Moreover, any proposal to amend the constitution must be passed by at least a two-thirds majority in the House. However, the amendment process is more complex, as it also necessitates approval by a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly (the upper house) and, in certain cases, a referendum. Therefore, while RASWAPA’s potential near two-thirds majority in the lower house would grant it substantial power in ordinary legislation and some special procedures, constitutional amendments would still require broader cross-party consensus and upper house approval. This scenario would fundamentally reshape Nepal’s political landscape, potentially enabling RASWAPA to drive legislative agendas with unprecedented authority, while also raising discussions about checks and balances in the world’s newest federal democratic republic. The final results are still pending, but the emerging math suggests a historic mandate that could redefine governance and coalition dynamics in the country.
