Kathmandu, 6 March: Amid the ongoing vote counting, by the time this briefing was prepared by the team of Onlinekhabar, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is leading in about 45 seats, mostly with large vote margins.
The Nepali Congress, which went to voters with a message of change after its special general convention, has not been able to effectively expand that message among the broader public. Although the party is currently in second place with leads in five seats, the gap with RSP remains significant. According to our team’s internal assessment, party president Gagan Thapa is himself under pressure in Sarlahi-4.
This election appears to have dealt the biggest blow to the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist). So far, the party is leading in only three seats. By the time final results are announced and proportional representation votes are counted, the UML may secure some more satisfactory positions. However, many top leaders of the party — including chairman and former prime minister K. P. Sharma Oli, vice-chairman Bishnu Prasad Paudel, and general secretary Shankar Pokhrel — are likely to lose their seats despite UML having secured the highest popular vote in the 2079 election.
While Pushpa Kamal Dahal appears to have a strong chance of winning in Rukum East, his party Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) may still end up in fourth place with a relatively weak base. At present, only two candidates from the party are leading.
Meanwhile, the Ujyalo Party led by Kulman Ghising and the Shram Sanskriti Party led by Harka Sampang do not appear to have made a significant impact in this election.
Regional parties are facing an existential struggle for the first time since the 2008 election. Even the Janamat Party led by C. K. Raut and the Nagarik Unmukti Party led by Resham Chaudhary, which emerged strongly in 2079, appear to be facing similar challenges.
It now seems likely that no more than five or six parties will be represented in the next parliament.
If the current momentum continues, RSP could secure close to a two-thirds majority in parliament.
From conversations our colleagues conducted with voters across different regions of the country, one key factor stands out: the message of good governance and delivery demonstrated by Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah during his tenure at Kathmandu Metropolitan City. That message spread widely through social media and became a major driving force behind the current electoral wave.
Another factor was the message carried by Nepali migrant workers abroad, who promoted the ideas of good governance, employment opportunities, and prospects within Nepal to their families and communities back home.
Among many in Madhesh Province, another strong sentiment emerged: that for the first time in Nepal’s history, a Madhesi community member could become prime minister, and that such a leader would not be corrupt.
Political analyst Tulanarayan Sah says:
“During his tenure as Kathmandu’s mayor, Balen worked on governance and transparency. Its impact has reached even villages in Madhesh. When schools and colleges in Kathmandu made scholarships more accessible and transparent, students from Madhesh benefited, and their families strongly promoted Balen’s work.”
Another important aspect of this election is that the traditionally strong organizational base of UML did not appear mobilized. Even when the party suffered a setback in 2008, its organizational foundation had remained intact. This time, however, that base appears to have weakened under the wave supporting RSP.
Although the Nepali Congress, under the leadership of Gagan Thapa, fielded over 100 new candidates, they have not been able to translate that into electoral victories against the “Balen wave.”
Many voters believe that the longstanding misgovernance in the country must largely be attributed to the Nepali Congress and UML, with the Maoists also seen as partners in that system. This perception has also influenced the election results.
Another factor was the Gen-Z movement. The violence carried out by the state during the protests last September and the political upheaval that followed appear to have been expressed through the ballot box. During the election campaign, many people urged voters to remember the sacrifices made during the protests, and this message spread strongly on social media.
Voters were also frustrated by the tendency of long-dominant political forces and leaders — repeatedly re-elected over many years — to form shifting alliances simply to maintain power.
Having already tested the Congress and UML, voters appear to have expressed a desire for change by supporting new faces.
Observers say that because parties failed to renew themselves in time, the public has effectively replaced them. They believe that if parties had opened the path for leadership change through timely conventions, the current wave might not have emerged.
Analysts now advise political parties to respect the public mandate and plan carefully moving forward.
At the same time, RSP itself will face pressure to understand and respond to the message of the electorate. Analysts note that in the past, parties such as the Maoists, Congress, and UML also received major opportunities but failed to use them effectively. They suggest that RSP must learn from those lessons.
