Kathmandu, 29 April: Despite continued economic growth, Nepal’s per capita income is projected to decline. The National Statistics Office has estimated that in the current fiscal year 2082/83, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or per capita income, will decrease by 3 dollars to 1,513 USD. In Nepali rupees, per capita income is expected to drop by around 450 rupees. According to the national accounts data released on Tuesday, last year’s revised estimate stood at 1,516 USD.
The projected 3.85% economic growth, bringing the economy’s size to 66 trillion rupees, appears contradictory to the decline in per capita income. However, the office has clarified this issue. According to Director Dinesh Bhattarai, the rise in the US dollar exchange rate compared to last year has made per capita income appear lower. “Last year, the exchange rate was 136 rupees per dollar; now it has reached 150,” he said. “Additionally, the economy has not expanded in proportion to population growth, which has also slightly reduced per capita income.” He emphasized that the decline is not significant in real terms but is mainly due to exchange rate effects.
When compared based on exchange rates, per capita income in Nepali rupees has actually increased. Last fiscal year, with an exchange rate of 136 rupees per dollar, per capita income amounted to 206,176 rupees. In contrast, in the current fiscal year, with the exchange rate at 150 rupees per dollar, it reaches around 227,000 rupees.
Economy expands by 4 trillion rupees
The office estimates that the economy will expand by 4 trillion rupees in the current fiscal year. The size of the economy, which was 61.99 trillion rupees last year, is expected to reach 66 trillion rupees this year. However, the projected growth rate is lower than the government’s target of 6% set in the budget.
According to the office, the measurement of economic size and growth is based on consumer prices. The agricultural sector is expected to grow by only 1.58% this fiscal year, while the non-agricultural sector, including services, is projected to grow by 4.54%. The office continues to assess economic performance based on contributions from 18 different industrial activities.
In terms of growth rate, the electricity and gas sector is expected to lead with a 20.93% increase, followed by financial and insurance services at 9.16%, transportation and storage at 5.79%, and administrative and support services at 4.52%.
Public administration and defense services are expected to have the lowest growth rate at just 0.23%. Similarly, the education sector is projected to grow by only 1.50%. In terms of contribution, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries remain the leading sectors in the economy.
