A claim that Goldman Sachs has projected a potential $90 billion loss to the U.S. economy due to President Donald Trump’s policies is accurate. This figure represents a worst-case scenario estimate, equating to approximately 0.3% of the U.S. GDP, stemming from declines in tourism and export revenues.
Key Points:
• Tourism Decline: International tourism to the U.S. has seen a significant downturn. In March 2025, there was an 11.6% year-over-year decrease in non-citizen arrivals, with notable drops from countries like the UK, Ireland, Germany, and Denmark. Canadian flight reservations for the summer season have plummeted by 70%, and some hotel chains report a 25% decline in bookings from European travelers .
• Retail Impact: The decrease in international visitors is projected to put nearly $20 billion in U.S. retail spending at risk, affecting businesses that rely heavily on tourist expenditures .
• Export Revenue: Beyond tourism, there’s a growing trend of foreign consumers boycotting American products in response to U.S. tariffs and diplomatic tensions, further impacting export revenues .
Context:
Goldman Sachs attributes these economic challenges to heightened trade tensions, unpredictable policy shifts, and a deteriorating global perception of the U.S. These factors have led to increased market volatility and a reduction in business confidence, prompting the bank to lower its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to 0.5% .
While the $90 billion figure represents a worst-case scenario, it underscores the significant economic risks associated with current U.S. policies.
“Key Factors Contributing to the Decline
• Political Climate: The Trump administration’s policies, including aggressive immigration enforcement and strained international relations, have led to a decrease in foreign visitors.
• Economic Policies: Trade tensions and tariffs have negatively impacted the U.S.’s image abroad, discouraging international travel.
• Travel Advisories: Several countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens about visiting the U.S., citing concerns over safety and political instability.
Economic Impact
The decline in international tourism has significant economic implications:
• Revenue Loss: The U.S. tourism industry faces a projected $9 billion loss in revenue due to decreased foreign arrivals.
• Job Market: Reduced international travel affects employment in sectors like hospitality, transportation, and retail.
In summary, international travel to the U.S. has decreased in 2025, influenced by political, economic, and social factors, leading to substantial economic consequences for the tourism industry.”
