At the beginning of 2026, financial markets were showing a relatively normal performance. However, the war that began in Iran has created significant volatility in the market. Due to the conflict, oil prices have risen sharply, and the prices of petroleum and diesel have also seen unprecedented increases.
The price of Brent crude oil has crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since the summer of 2022. In the United States, the average price of gas was below $3 per gallon at the end of February. But after the war began, the nationwide average rose above $4 per gallon. Diesel prices increased even more, reaching $5.45 per gallon, up from $3.76 before the war. This has significantly raised daily expenses for American consumers.
The biggest impact on financial markets has come from rising oil prices and ongoing uncertainty. Investors are constantly shifting between hope and concern, depending on whether the war will end soon or continue for a longer period. This has led to sharp fluctuations in the U.S. stock market throughout the day.
Impact on the Stock Market
At the start of 2026, the U.S. stock market had been on a steady upward trend for the past three years. However, due to the war, the S&P 500 index fell by about 4.6%, marking its weakest quarterly performance since 2022. The Nasdaq Composite index, which is heavily weighted toward technology companies, dropped more than 10% from its October peak.
Shares of oil-related companies have performed the best during this period, particularly those of ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and Valero Energy. The market continues to fluctuate between optimism that the war will end soon and fears that it may drag on.
Uncertainty and Future Outlook
The future situation remains difficult to predict. The U.S. President has expressed hope for ending the war while also issuing targeted threats against Iran’s energy infrastructure. On the other hand, Iran has downplayed claims of progress in negotiations.
Iran continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. As long as this situation persists, analysts say volatility in oil prices and stock markets is likely to continue.
According to experts, the war could have long-term impacts on both the U.S. and global economies. Instability in oil and petroleum supply, inflation, fluctuations in interest rates, and continued uncertainty in stock markets are expected to persist. (RSS/AP)
